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over the last few weeks i have managed to find off the streets over here (in Suva) propoganda DVD's made in Indonesia by Jammat Islamiya / al Qaeda showing Mujahideen operations in Iraq and in the Palestinian territories - hardcore stuff. in the background Saheed music and chants going on as the bombs and the snipers and the RPG's verify their kills.

the DVD's look like they have been made in Iraq or Egypt and then redone in Indonesia or Malaysia with subtitles in Indonesian.

heavy stuff - the kind of stuff that can make kids wanna go to Jihad. truly mind blowing psy ops. the guys who made these DVD's are psy ops masters.

they even showed suicide bombers preparing for operations in Baghdad - reading the Koran and preparing for their operations.

its an eerie feeling watching these things go down on the screen as Allah Uakbar chants go up in the background - truly eerie. these guys take their war as a religious duty - heaps of sniper verifications of their kills - Yanks and Contractors and British - and it looks like these guys are using video on their scopes cause the shots they are taking are actually recorded live.

you can tell that these snipers aren't that experienced - but they are making their kills. solid kills.

the Aussies are worried about the spread of Jihad down into this region - in addition to the transnational crime and the rest of it - but the irony is that they are shyting in the nest even as they try to deal with these new issues - and they have been shyting in the nest since the late 70's, early 80's - stability in this region requires longterm planning and sensible and clear policies - just throwing money at the situation isn't going to build any longterm stability without equitable and constructive policies in place to create the conditions that will engender long term stability and progress.

if Australia does not handle these issues properly and keeps shyting in the nest, it will have a big problem on its hands in this region in the next two decades - as society slips into poverty and new groups emerge into the power vacum, this region will become the southern most point of that arc of instability spreading through the Middle East, into India, down through South East Asia, PNG, Solomons and on to us.

last year a drug courier coming through Nadi from South America was caught at a local hotel with heroin - the only reason why she was caught is because she had no network set up over here to move her stuff - but what it shows is that the guys over that side (Colombia, Venezuela, Peru, Panama, Ecuador etc etc etc) recognise that there is a route through here to Aussie and New Zealand and further afield into Japan and Korea etc etc etc - and its only a matter of time before these guys start pumping in the money to set up the networks to move that stuff through into those Tasman markets.

our local airports don't have surveillance capabilities to catch drug traffickers - its a very porous border. unless there is information that someone coming through may be of interest, the local authorities have no equipment to check up on guys - in Aussie they have dogs doing random searches - and then drug testing equipment right there at the airport which they use to test smears from the luggage to verify whether there is any form of illegal substance (drugs) present - once they verify, they then refer the issue for physical search of the suspects luggage - and if they don't find anything and still believe that he has something, they refer it to the local hospital for sonar scanning of the guy - many of these couriers do it with swallowed sealed condoms - we don't have the expertise and/or the equipment over here - the drug tracking capability is largely hit and miss - we have dogs, but dogs can't smell drugs someone who has swallowed 50 condoms of cocaine coming through here.

its a serious situation - and with this instability its likely to get worse unless the proper approach is taken to address and resolve these issues.

the cross roads towards the future of this region is right here and now.

this regime deports people - it doesn't write threatening letters. the list of deported is a long one - and the only people they don't deport are the one's who they want to keep here so that they can nail them with criminal prosecutions - like Ballu Khan.

thats where this whole threat letter fiasco becomes bogus - Batley would be on a plane to Sydney if the regime wanted him out - and the fact is they don't want him out because he is doing a lot of good - he may be saying hard things, but overall he is setting an agenda that is going to stabalise this country in the longterm - unlike previous Ambassadors, Batley has a firm grasp of the issues involved - and he understands the dynamics involved - and he is sufficiently distanced from the whole process to be able to make solid assessments - previous ambassadors have been too close to the action - up and personal.

Batley seems to be playing it a lot better and differently - but he has been wrongly advised on the letter and how to handle it.

if anyone wants him out now, i would suspect they would be the SDL - because Batley is moving along a middle course that they don't want - they want a tougher stance.

for the regime, being petulent is nothing new - and if they don't want to have the elections - they don't have to make excuses. they simply will say NO - they have already done much to damage things - and saying No to the elections won't make any difference at all to the current state of play. its all ready in deep waters.

this was and is a bogus threat.

there is a process thats put in place - the security guys set up a letter handling process (if its not already on place then the Aussies are probably too complacent with their security - no letter should go directly from the box to the Amabassador) - there is a vetting process - letters are handled through a chain of vetting - the security guys receive the letters first - and they are sorted and checked - if they have equipment onsite they can also scan the letters for traces of explosive substances, or other chemicals - these are mobile units - then the letters are sent through to normal dispatch within the embassy.

if there is any physically suspect letter, its taken out and "quarantined" - what this means is that they put it through for further analysis - and other security measures. other letters that get through but are threatening will be referred back to the security guys who will "asses" the letter - there are things that are looked at eg the specificity of the threat, the language used, the grammar, the tone of the letter, the posting stamps, tyime and date etc etc etc - these things are analysed to assess the credibility of the threat - a letter shows INTENT, but behind INTENT there has to be CAPACITY and that is assessed by looking at details like specificity and that kind of thing - MOTIVE is also assessed - and they use psy analysis to assess the mindset / pshycology of the guy writing the letter - language you use says a lot about your frame of mind, your proclivities, whether you are part of a bigger group etc etc etc.

then acrive security screens are put in place to counteract the threat - with that kind of threat, they have to asses what kind of information the aggressor has - because information on movements of the principal are one of the key things that any aggressor needs in order to target the guy - so they will work around that, maybe limit his exposure at local engagements or increase the security perimeter around him or ask for local agencies to provide civilian clothed back up and intelligence on likely aggressors.

this is a technical area gdev, its not just a few cowboys running around playing Clint Eastwood and having their "make my day" pictures in the Fiji Times.

the guys who advised the Ambassador to release that information to the media are cowboys - thats the kind of thing that raises the temperature and, if the local agencies are offended, it only makes your work of liasing with the local agencies to protect your principal more difficult - you have to think these things through before you act - and those cowboys acted without thinking of the consequences or analysing the causes - they let their personal vendetta with FB cloud their thinking - which is exactly what they should not have been doing.

this type of work is always low key - and the less information you give out to the public the better.